CLSA: electric vehicles have created tremendous opportunities for lithium battery manufacturers

CLSA (CLSA) September 23 released the report stresses that the post-oil era in lithium battery manufacturers have created tremendous business opportunities, because electric cars lithium battery is the power switch. But the optimal solution remains elusive, due to manufacturers to improve the energy density, longer cycle life, improve safety and reduce costs in a dilemma. In the CLSA Investors’ Forum, CLSA check the cost of the battery, short-term price and economy of electric vehicles. CLSA said that Nissan was the winner of the electric car market. But other manufacturers are difficult to achieve sales targets.

CLSA believes that the current development of lithium car is still too early in the next three years, battery manufacturers and automobile manufacturers will be crucial, because of their need to work together to find the best technology. From 2009 to 2012, automakers have begun to pay attention to the construction of lines initially produces solutions for manufacturing defects and improve yield. CLSA assumptions, to 2012 cells at the lowest cost 60,000 yuan per kWh electric cars to 80,000 cars. Nissan (7201.JP) is the only approach to reduce the cost of sales activities needed.

Electric vehicle market is still nascent, at least that many support of world government, it would be difficult to survive. Consumers are not the only growth driving force. A common concern is to reduce dependence on oil. Other factors include the purpose of improving the competitiveness of the Japanese automotive industry, the Obama administration to employment considerations and objectives of the European carbon emissions. Although sales of 1 million electric cars will require up to a year of 6 billion to 15 billion dollars, but based on the economic recovery, it is very difficult to achieve a fuel economy may be due to arrest or decrease.

CLSA noted that the comparative aspects of the cathode, the cathode of iron phosphate in the U.S. costs 20 U.S. dollars per kilogram in China, 25 U.S. dollars per kilogram. It’s less expensive than the nickel cathode, much cheaper cathode of manganese oxide for 18 U.S. dollars per kilogram. Because of his group of automotive batteries is only 11% even if the costs of halving the invention of the cathode root, except that the composition of the battery was reduced by 5%. Need to increase sales to reduce the cost of raw materials for each individual, and the choice of the cathode alone can not determine the winner in the battery market. Nissan chose the cathode of manganese oxide is the right choice, because hybrid cars of the company are most backward areas.

Focus on issues of safety control of the heat. Iron phosphate has a strong covalent bond, and 400c of oxygen the following does not issue, which is the cause of the fire and explosion. But this does not mean that security issues have been resolved. Anode current collector at 100 C, dissolved, and 150C, when things began to melt segregation, and 200C when the electrolytic decomposition and began to release combustible gases. A certain extent, security focused on thermal control and efficient cooling system to prevent NP-FC11 battery failure caused the heat out of control. No difference in the quality of the battery is also very important because if there are gaps or resistance to the improvement of the battery and all other cells to reduce attacks and life has also become a battery may cause the failure.

Penetration rate by 2015 will be 1.5%. Electric cars, electric cars and plug combination, CLSA is only expected to sell in 2015 will be 1.4 million. 2015 Nissan electric cars account for half of turnover and represents 20% of the plug-in car sales. Kilowatt-hour drive to calculate the U.S. automakers, another big problem, because for example, General Motors, Volvo driving per kilowatt-hour would only 2.5 miles, while plug-in Toyota Prius at least 4.0 miles per kWh. GM’s electric vehicle had to equip the Japanese more than electric cars more than 60% of the EN-EL3e battery to reach the distance traveled. Therefore, in this case, the advantage of lower costs to consumers disappoints.

Automotive Li-ion batteries are the three major Asian exchanges Yuasa, Japan (GS Yuasa, 6674.JP), the unit of earnings growth of CLSA is expected to provide proof of its high valuation, Samsung SDI (Samsung SDI, 006400.KS), have the right to an attractive valuation and prospects of long-term growth, while BYD (01211) The rapid growth of sales and provides the potential leader.